The market's error with Ulta came in March and April, when it treated one quarter of discretionary overhead spend and a partnership wind-down as evidence that America's largest specialty beauty retailer was losing its category.
Read Article ›The market spent July repricing Taiwan Semiconductor's capital intensity and has not finished re-rating the returns that capital generates.
Read Article ›At eleven times forward earnings against a mid-thirties return on equity and a client cohort deepening at 34% per relationship, the risk-reward is skewed to the upside, and the stock is worth owning even after the run.
Read Article ›What tips the balance is that the approval was not the whole catalyst — it was the start of a data stream that gets richer, not thinner, from here.
Read Article ›The reason the multiple is compressed is not that anyone doubts the ad engine; it is that Meta, alone among the hyperscalers, has no third-party cloud line absorbing the spend.
Read Article ›Quanta is priced as a high-quality compounder rather than a bargain, and the near-term estimate momentum still points up as the raised guide and the un-booked corridor stacking feed the next several prints.
Read Article ›The signed backlog says the consensus deceleration curve is too steep, and while that gap persists the stock can grind higher on upward revisions rather than on further multiple expansion. That is the constructive case, and it is a real one: bookings running ahead of revenue, ...
Read Article ›The market is treating a normalizing-from-peak renewable-diesel earner as a fluke and pricing the whole enterprise as a commodity rendering play, when the balance sheet is de-risking fast, the buyback retires a tenth of the float, and the collagen core compounds on its own clock.
Read Article ›The thesis lives in the hotels; the entertainment arm is a call option the market keeps trying to price and, I will argue, is getting wrong in a way that is more nuisance than opportunity.
Read Article ›The consensus reading is that this is a fully-valued yield vehicle: a solid 6% payer trading at ~11x EBITDA, worth owning for income and little more. My argument is that the operating engine is compounding meaningfully faster than that framing credits, that the loudest bear ob...
Read Article ›The private-credit fear that cut the stock by nearly 40% is aimed at roughly a twentieth of the platform. At ~15x forward adjusted earnings after a brutal drawdown, the confirmation risk over the next several quarters sits with the bears. This is a high-quality compounder on s...
Read Article ›Hawaiian Electric has graduated from tail-risk to execution risk, and that is a genuine improvement in the quality of the investment. The legal cliff is behind it: the global settlement is final, the releases are effective, and the first $479 million installment is paid.
Read Article ›The central tension in Dexcom is whether its non-insulin type 2 expansion is a margin-accretive growth wave or a commoditization trap. The resolution is in the sequencing. The catalysts that drive the next several quarters — commercial coverage of all diabetics this summer, G7...
Read Article ›The market is trading this as a comp-recovery story, and the comp has recovered, but the actual swing factor for the next leg of the stock is margin, and specifically North America margin, which is still badly depressed.
Read Article ›The company is printing record revenue, expanding swaps share across every major currency, growing international past 40% of the mix, and converting more than $1 billion to free cash flow — yet the stock sits near a 52-week low because investors have fixated on a fee-per-milli...
Read Article ›Warner Bros Discovery offers a mid-to-high-teens gross return to a $31 cash takeout, backed by a buyer with unusually strong financial credibility–meanwhile the DOJ appears constructive; international approvals are accumulating; and the underlying business—particularly streami...
Read Article ›Intuit shares have been cut roughly in half from their 52-week high, recently trading in the low $300s, while Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 10%, guidance was raised, and the highest-growth engines are compounding above 30%. TurboTax Live — Intuit's AI-plus-expert model — is on t...
Read Article ›L3Harris shares have retreated nearly 20% from their 52-week high near $379, creating a compelling entry into what is shaping up as a multi-year earnings inflection. A record $40.7 billion backlog—which management describes as approximately two times revenue coverage—means the...
Read Article ›Uber's Q1 2026 delivered 25% gross bookings growth to $53.7 billion and a 44% surge in non-GAAP EPS to $0.72, yet the stock trades below $70—roughly 30% below its October 2025 peak. The disconnect between operational execution and stock price reflects GAAP noise from equity in...
Read Article ›Lam Research delivered a record March quarter and guided its June quarter to a stunning $6.6 billion in revenue — roughly 10% above consensus at the time. The business is accelerating across memory, foundry, and services. Yet with shares near $318, up close to 300% in the past...
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