Uber's Cash Flywheel Is Spinning Faster Than Its Stock Price Suggests

Uber accelerated into another record-breaking quarter, with more than 200 million monthly users completing more than 40 million trips every day—"our largest and most engaged consumer base ever", said Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO.

Uber's business is in the best fundamental shape of its public history. Gross bookings climbed 25% year over year to $53.7 billion in Q1 2026, supported by 3.6 billion trips and 199 million monthly active platform consumers. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.72, beating expectations. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 33% to $2.48 billion.

And yet, the stock sits near $71—roughly 30% below its October 2025 high of $100.10.

The gap between what the business is doing and what the share price reflects is the opportunity. For investors with a 12- to 18-month horizon, Uber offers a rare combination: accelerating volume growth, expanding margins in its largest segments, and a buyback program large enough to act as a meaningful floor. The risk side is real—an $11.6 billion takeover bid introduces capital allocation uncertainty, and the UK VAT overhang remains binary—but neither is existential. This is a high-quality compounding story priced as though something is broken.

What Drove the Selloff—And Why It's Mostly Optical

Three factors compressed the multiple:

1. GAAP earnings noise. GAAP net income fell to $263 million from $1.78 billion a year ago, driven by a $1.5 billion pre-tax headwind from equity investment revaluations. These are mark-to-market adjustments on Uber's portfolio of equity stakes, which have zero bearing on cash flow or operating performance. They are, however, the number that headlines use.

2. UK revenue model changes. As of January 2, 2026, UK legislation eliminated the Tour Operators' Margin Scheme for private-hire platforms. Large ride-hailing operators in London, including Uber and Bolt, can no longer apply the scheme to fares and must account for 20% VAT...