Intuit's Selloff Has Overshot the Fundamentals

Something unusual is happening with Intuit. Shares have fallen more than 52% from their 52-week high near $814 and recently traded below $320. On the same day Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell, citing heightened competitive threats in tax, the underlying business told a different story. Increased Consumer Group revenue by 10 percent to $4.9 billion and TurboTax Live revenue by 47 percent to $2.0 billion. Grew Credit Karma revenue by 32 percent to $2.3 billion. Increased GAAP operating income by 36 percent to $4.9 billion, and non-GAAP operating income by 18 percent to $7.6 billion. Grew GAAP earnings per share by 31 percent to $13.67, and non-GAAP earnings per share by 19 percent to $20.15.

Q3 revenue reached $8.6 billion, up 10% year-over-year, driven by AI-powered platform strategy and robust growth in assisted tax, the Money portfolio, and mid-market segments. Management raised full-year guidance for revenue and all non-GAAP metrics. Full fiscal 2026 revenue is now guided to $21.34–$21.37 billion, representing 13–14% growth, with non-GAAP EPS guidance of $23.80–$23.85, growth of approximately 18%.

The market is treating Intuit as though its franchise is eroding. The numbers suggest it is actually being re-engineered and monetized more aggressively.

TurboTax Live: The Structural Pivot No One Is Talking About

The biggest underappreciated story inside Intuit is TurboTax Live. Revenue is expected to grow 36% to $2.8 billion, representing approximately 53% of total TurboTax revenue, with customer count growing 38%. This is not a promotional gimmick. It is a fundamental shift in how Intuit monetizes tax preparation — moving from selling software to selling...