On cash flow, this stock is already struck closer to a mid-cycle oil deck than to the futures strip, and the next twelve months of return comes out of the balance sheet rather than out of the multiple.
Read Article ›At about 18x 2027 earnings, with net cash, a 5.7% free cash flow yield and an unused repurchase authorization underneath it, TechnipFMC is mispriced.
Read Article ›In the June quarter, the company finished the hardest thing it has attempted in decades: cutting Amazon's volume by more than half from 2024 levels, roughly two million pieces a day, alongside some 78,000 operational positions, close to 150 buildings, and about $4.5 billion of...
Read Article ›At 23x forward earnings, with every segment's operating metrics improving, the market is underpricing RTX's near-term operational momentum: aircraft on ground falling, Collins cost actions landing, Raytheon converting a 2.4x book-to-bill.
Read Article ›The market has marked down a franchise for a threat it cannot yet feel, and at 37 times forward earnings Howmet is worth owning — not for a re-rating to $328, but because the business is compounding faster than the multiple needs to expand.
Read Article ›The market spent a week repricing Lam for a demand shock that the guide, the deferred revenue and the clean-room schedule all contradict, and fiscal 2027 earnings are close to banked at a level the last eight quarters suggest is a floor rather than a target.
Read Article ›What kills single-asset biotechs is not usually the science; it is being forced to sell equity into bad news and AbCellera has removed that mechanism for the window in question.
Read Article ›The market is now valuing AppLovin below a diversified mega-cap advertising platform on forward earnings while it grows two to three times as fast, generates over 60% net margins, carries essentially no net debt, and retires stock.
Read Article ›At eleven times forward earnings against a mid-thirties return on equity and a client cohort deepening at 34% per relationship, the risk-reward is skewed to the upside, and the stock is worth owning even after the run.
Read Article ›The company is a fixed-fee volume engine that beat on reliability, is forward-sold through year-end, has a funded ramp to 60–63 MTPA nearly complete, and is retiring roughly 3% of its shares a year.
Read Article ›The reason the multiple is compressed is not that anyone doubts the ad engine; it is that Meta, alone among the hyperscalers, has no third-party cloud line absorbing the spend.
Read Article ›The discount as struck double-counts Argentina — once in the multiple and again in the reflex to distrust cash flows that are demonstrably Brent-linked and demonstrably deleveraging the balance sheet. The tape has earned back at least one of those two discounts.
Read Article ›Dave is a genuinely compounding franchise with a data moat, temporarily mispriced because the market read a high-return reinvestment decision as margin decay, carrying a real and unreserved regulatory tail that justifies a discounted multiple but not the one the market assigne...
Read Article ›The signed backlog says the consensus deceleration curve is too steep, and while that gap persists the stock can grind higher on upward revisions rather than on further multiple expansion. That is the constructive case, and it is a real one: bookings running ahead of revenue, ...
Read Article ›The market is treating a normalizing-from-peak renewable-diesel earner as a fluke and pricing the whole enterprise as a commodity rendering play, when the balance sheet is de-risking fast, the buyback retires a tenth of the float, and the collagen core compounds on its own clock.
Read Article ›The thesis lives in the hotels; the entertainment arm is a call option the market keeps trying to price and, I will argue, is getting wrong in a way that is more nuisance than opportunity.
Read Article ›The de-rating question the setup poses answers itself when you look closely: the stock is not down on a broken thesis but off its high in a broad healthcare drawdown, and the June quarter was a clean beat with a raise. So the honest verdict is not that McKesson is mispriced — ...
Read Article ›The central tension on AerCap — elite, scale-leading franchise versus a perennial, structurally-justified lessor discount — resolves, on the current evidence, in favor of the franchise.
Read Article ›Put the pieces together and the picture is a franchise of unusual quality — two effective duopolies in Ratings and Indices, benchmark businesses that print 68–72% divisional margins and convert nearly all of earnings to cash — trading at roughly 20x FY27 earnings, a five-turn ...
Read Article ›The reason to hold Costco through any multiple debate is that the membership line is not just growing — it is accelerating, and its quality is improving. Everyone agrees the franchise is elite. The contested question is whether 46x trailing earnings — roughly 40-42x forward — ...
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