At ~19x forward earnings on a franchise whose fee rate has inflected up after a decade of compression, with capital return stepping up and the two genuine risks slow-burning and priced into the downside case, BlackRock is worth owning through the volatility — not because it is...
Read Article ›The catalyst the market is under-weighting is the second derivative on organic billings: a steepening curve off a de-risked trough, with a bankrupt-tenant claim thrown in for free. The catalyst that broke this stock — the fiber write-downs, the dividend cut, the DISH default, ...
Read Article ›The discount as struck double-counts Argentina — once in the multiple and again in the reflex to distrust cash flows that are demonstrably Brent-linked and demonstrably deleveraging the balance sheet. The tape has earned back at least one of those two discounts.
Read Article ›Quanta is priced as a high-quality compounder rather than a bargain, and the near-term estimate momentum still points up as the raised guide and the un-booked corridor stacking feed the next several prints.
Read Article ›The risk-reward here is skewed favorably for a specific and unusual reason: the earnings math is more knowable than that of almost any agency, and the market is charging almost nothing for it. The category is structurally challenged and the franchise is thin — those are real, ...
Read Article ›Dave is a genuinely compounding franchise with a data moat, temporarily mispriced because the market read a high-return reinvestment decision as margin decay, carrying a real and unreserved regulatory tail that justifies a discounted multiple but not the one the market assigne...
Read Article ›The signed backlog says the consensus deceleration curve is too steep, and while that gap persists the stock can grind higher on upward revisions rather than on further multiple expansion. That is the constructive case, and it is a real one: bookings running ahead of revenue, ...
Read Article ›For years the bear objection to WESCO's data-center growth was structural: hyperscale projects are enormous but competitively bid, and volume that dilutes margin is worth less than the revenue line suggests.
Read Article ›The hinge of the whole situation is a single line in the second-quarter results. Strip it out and clean 2026 earnings power sits closer to $15 a share — and 2027 then benefits a second time, because the refinancing itself lowers the ongoing interest bill.
Read Article ›The market is treating a normalizing-from-peak renewable-diesel earner as a fluke and pricing the whole enterprise as a commodity rendering play, when the balance sheet is de-risking fast, the buyback retires a tenth of the float, and the collagen core compounds on its own clock.
Read Article ›The thesis lives in the hotels; the entertainment arm is a call option the market keeps trying to price and, I will argue, is getting wrong in a way that is more nuisance than opportunity.
Read Article ›The de-rating question the setup poses answers itself when you look closely: the stock is not down on a broken thesis but off its high in a broad healthcare drawdown, and the June quarter was a clean beat with a raise. So the honest verdict is not that McKesson is mispriced — ...
Read Article ›The central tension on AerCap — elite, scale-leading franchise versus a perennial, structurally-justified lessor discount — resolves, on the current evidence, in favor of the franchise.
Read Article ›In the June 2026 quarter, Delta Air Lines carried the highest quarterly fuel bill in its history — total fuel expense of $4.4 billion, up nearly $2 billion year-over-year at an all-in price of $3.93 a gallon, itself a 75% jump — and still turned in an adjusted 8.8% operating m...
Read Article ›At roughly 26x forward free cash flow for a contracted AI franchise with a fabless cost structure and a software annuity behind it, Broadcom is worth owning for the compounding, with the clear-eyed understanding that six customers and 95% wafer concentration make the bear case...
Read Article ›The consensus reading is that this is a fully-valued yield vehicle: a solid 6% payer trading at ~11x EBITDA, worth owning for income and little more. My argument is that the operating engine is compounding meaningfully faster than that framing credits, that the loudest bear ob...
Read Article ›Put the pieces together and the picture is a franchise of unusual quality — two effective duopolies in Ratings and Indices, benchmark businesses that print 68–72% divisional margins and convert nearly all of earnings to cash — trading at roughly 20x FY27 earnings, a five-turn ...
Read Article ›At roughly 41x FY27E earnings against that growth and that balance sheet, Robinhood is mispriced as a crypto proxy when the crypto line has already fallen to 13% of revenue and the business kept compounding anyway. The market is underwriting the wrong risk, and the diversifica...
Read Article ›The Q1 2026 print, the closed Apellis platform, and the explicit 2027 deleveraging path are the evidence that the growth story is no longer unproven — it is showing up in the revenue line and the cash flow. The pipeline readouts in late 2026 and 2027 are real and could break t...
Read Article ›On July 8, 2026, Deere settled the antitrust right-to-repair lawsuit brought by the FTC and five state attorneys general; under a stipulated order running ten years and subject to FTC oversight, Deere must give farmers and independent shops the same diagnostic and repair resou...
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