The de-rating question the setup poses answers itself when you look closely: the stock is not down on a broken thesis but off its high in a broad healthcare drawdown, and the June quarter was a clean beat with a raise. So the honest verdict is not that McKesson is mispriced — ...
Read Article ›The central tension on AerCap — elite, scale-leading franchise versus a perennial, structurally-justified lessor discount — resolves, on the current evidence, in favor of the franchise.
Read Article ›In the June 2026 quarter, Delta Air Lines carried the highest quarterly fuel bill in its history — total fuel expense of $4.4 billion, up nearly $2 billion year-over-year at an all-in price of $3.93 a gallon, itself a 75% jump — and still turned in an adjusted 8.8% operating m...
Read Article ›At roughly 26x forward free cash flow for a contracted AI franchise with a fabless cost structure and a software annuity behind it, Broadcom is worth owning for the compounding, with the clear-eyed understanding that six customers and 95% wafer concentration make the bear case...
Read Article ›The consensus reading is that this is a fully-valued yield vehicle: a solid 6% payer trading at ~11x EBITDA, worth owning for income and little more. My argument is that the operating engine is compounding meaningfully faster than that framing credits, that the loudest bear ob...
Read Article ›Put the pieces together and the picture is a franchise of unusual quality — two effective duopolies in Ratings and Indices, benchmark businesses that print 68–72% divisional margins and convert nearly all of earnings to cash — trading at roughly 20x FY27 earnings, a five-turn ...
Read Article ›At roughly 41x FY27E earnings against that growth and that balance sheet, Robinhood is mispriced as a crypto proxy when the crypto line has already fallen to 13% of revenue and the business kept compounding anyway. The market is underwriting the wrong risk, and the diversifica...
Read Article ›The Q1 2026 print, the closed Apellis platform, and the explicit 2027 deleveraging path are the evidence that the growth story is no longer unproven — it is showing up in the revenue line and the cash flow. The pipeline readouts in late 2026 and 2027 are real and could break t...
Read Article ›On July 8, 2026, Deere settled the antitrust right-to-repair lawsuit brought by the FTC and five state attorneys general; under a stipulated order running ten years and subject to FTC oversight, Deere must give farmers and independent shops the same diagnostic and repair resou...
Read Article ›The reason to hold Costco through any multiple debate is that the membership line is not just growing — it is accelerating, and its quality is improving. Everyone agrees the franchise is elite. The contested question is whether 46x trailing earnings — roughly 40-42x forward — ...
Read Article ›The market has taken the world’s most-owned stock and, inside two months, compressed it to roughly 22–24x consensus NTM / FY27 earnings — not clearly below the S&P 500, but strikingly close to a market multiple for a company whose revenue just grew 85% year over year — on a be...
Read Article ›The de-rating that took the stock from the high-$40s to $42 was a repricing of dividend reliability, not of asset quality — and the assets, the balance sheet and the well inventory are all in better shape now than when the stock was higher. At a high-single-digit cash yield wi...
Read Article ›The bull/bear standoff here is well worn — an elite compounding franchise trading at roughly 40x earnings against a structural share issuance overhang. That framing is the starting point, not the answer. What tips the balance is the cadence of the underlying metrics: account, ...
Read Article ›Copart just delivered revenue growth, margin expansion, and higher EPS despite falling insurance volumes, backed by record pure-sale penetration, a rising total-loss frequency that structurally feeds its inventory, and a global bidder base that props up per-car economics.
Read Article ›The private-credit fear that cut the stock by nearly 40% is aimed at roughly a twentieth of the platform. At ~15x forward adjusted earnings after a brutal drawdown, the confirmation risk over the next several quarters sits with the bears. This is a high-quality compounder on s...
Read Article ›The debate isn't whether URBN is a good business—it's whether the crowd re-rates it before the numbers force the issue. I think the setup into holiday, backed by buybacks and a conservatively built margin plan, tilts that resolution in shareholders' favor.
Read Article ›Amazon stock has slid back toward the low $240s even as AWS just posted its fastest growth in nearly four years. The bear case is simple and loud: capital spending has swallowed free cash flow. My argument is that this particular cash flow trough is the most defensible one Ama...
Read Article ›The standing critique of Rocket Lab is simple: elite growth, elite vision, no profits, and a valuation that requires everything to go right. The Iridium acquisition is the most direct possible response to that critique, because Iridium is the thing Rocket Lab has never had—a c...
Read Article ›The market spent two years treating Comcast as a structurally challenged broadband utility with a fading media albatross stapled to it, and priced it accordingly. The separation of NBCUniversal and Sky directly attacks that framing by letting a cash-rich, under-cross-sold conn...
Read Article ›What the selloff underweights is that Microsoft has run this play before — it absorbed margin compression during the first Azure buildout and methodically clawed it back as utilization improved — and this time it holds more levers. The first is silicon. Its Cobalt CPU is now d...
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