Robinhood's Second Act Runs on Interest, Subscriptions and Prediction Markets — Not Crypto

The most instructive number in Robinhood's most recent quarter is not the headline. It is the one that fell: cryptocurrency transaction revenue dropped 47% year-over-year, from $252 million to $134 million, and its share of the company's total revenue collapsed from 27% to 13% in a single year . For a stock the market still trades as a levered bet on crypto sentiment, that ought to have been catastrophic. Instead, first-quarter revenue for the period ended March 31, 2026 still grew 15% to $1.067 billion, and net income attributable to Robinhood came in at $350 million against total net income of $346 million after a small non-controlling-interest deduction . That gap — a core engine cut nearly in half while the whole machine kept accelerating — is the thesis. Robinhood has quietly rebuilt itself into a diversified financial platform whose earnings power no longer hinges on the one line item the market fixates on, and the shares, down 2.9% year-to-date and closing at $109.77 , do not yet reflect it.

Robinhood earns money three ways, and the reporting mirrors that. Transaction-based revenues — options, equities, cryptocurrencies, and now event contracts — remain the largest bucket at $623 million in Q1 FY26, but their weight has fallen to 58% of the total from 63% a year earlier . Net interest revenues, the spread the firm earns on margin loans, customer cash, securities lending and its credit-card book, reached $359 million, or 34% of revenue . Other revenues — chiefly Gold subscriptions plus proxy and coin-listing fees — round out the last 8% at $85 million . Our data provider's product-segment cut of the full FY25 year, which lumps all trading into one line, shows transaction revenue at 88.8% of the total, Gold at 6.0%, other at 3.0% and proxy at 2.1%; that framing is stale relative to how the business now actually earns, and it is precisely the lens that leads the market to misjudge the name.

The Interest Engine the Crypto Bears Are Missing

The single most underappreciated fact about Robinhood today is that it has become, in large...