FactSet's Guidance Has Been Raised Twice Since the Stock Halved, and the AI Discount Has Not Closed

On 18 September 2025, FactSet told investors what it expected from the fiscal year ahead: organic annual subscription value growth of $100–150 million, revenue of $2,423–2,448 million, and adjusted diluted earnings of $16.90–17.60 a share . Set against the $16.98 the company had just reported for fiscal 2025 , the midpoint of that range implied roughly one and a half percent of adjusted earnings growth, and the bottom of it implied a decline — from a franchise that had raised its adjusted per-share earnings for twenty-nine consecutive years . The stock fell about 20% that week, from a $361.84 close to $289.15, and kept going. By 20 February 2026 it printed $185.00 .

Almost exactly a year later, none of that guidance survives in its original form. The fiscal 2026 outlook FactSet reaffirmed on 1 July had organic ASV growth of $130–160 million, revenue of $2,450–2,470 million and adjusted EPS of $17.25–17.75 — every dollar range lifted from where it started, with management saying on the call that revenue and EPS were tracking toward the high end . Organic ASV, the forward twelve months of contracted recurring revenue that is the company's own primary leading indicator, has accelerated for five straight quarters, reaching $2,485.6 million at 31 May 2026, up 7.1% . The shares, at $305.44 after a 2.6% session, are up about 65% from that February low and still 19% below the $377.07 high .

This is therefore not a bombed-out value pitch. The re-rate has begun. The argument is narrower and, I think, more interesting: the AI discount that took eight or nine turns off this multiple was underwritten by a growth scare that the company's own disclosures have since falsified, and the discount has only partly closed. At roughly 15.5x consensus earnings for the August 2027 fiscal year ($305.44 against a $19.70 mean) , the market is still paying a terminal-decline multiple for a subscription base that renews above 95% and just extended its contract terms.

The de-rating had two legs, and only one of them was about FactSet

The September 2025 guide-down was company-specific and deserved. Fiscal 2025 adjusted operating margin had fallen 150 basis...