On 18 September 2025, FactSet told investors what it expected from the fiscal year ahead: organic annual subscription value growth of $100–150 million, revenue of $2,423–2,448 million, and adjusted diluted earnings of $16.90–17.60 a share . Set against the $16.98 the company had just reported for fiscal 2025 , the midpoint of that range implied roughly one and a half percent of adjusted earnings growth, and the bottom of it implied a decline — from a franchise that had raised its adjusted per-share earnings for twenty-nine consecutive years . The stock fell about 20% that week, from a $361.84 close to $289.15, and kept going. By 20 February 2026 it printed $185.00 .
Almost exactly a year later, none of that guidance survives in its original form. The fiscal 2026 outlook FactSet reaffirmed on 1 July had organic ASV growth of $130–160 million, revenue of $2,450–2,470 million and adjusted EPS of $17.25–17.75 — every dollar range lifted from where it started, with management saying on the call that revenue and EPS were tracking toward the high end . Organic ASV, the forward twelve months of contracted recurring revenue that is the company's own primary leading indicator, has accelerated for five straight quarters, reaching $2,485.6 million at 31 May 2026, up 7.1% . The shares, at $305.44 after a 2.6% session, are up about 65% from that February low and still 19% below the $377.07 high .
This is therefore not a bombed-out value pitch. The re-rate has begun. The argument is narrower and, I think, more interesting: the AI discount that took eight or nine turns off this multiple was underwritten by a growth scare that the company's own disclosures have since falsified, and the discount has only partly closed. At roughly 15.5x consensus earnings for the August 2027 fiscal year ($305.44 against a $19.70 mean) , the market is still paying a terminal-decline multiple for a subscription base that renews above 95% and just extended its contract terms.
The de-rating had two legs, and only one of them was about FactSet
The September 2025 guide-down was company-specific and deserved. Fiscal 2025 adjusted operating margin had fallen 150 basis...