Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis

Eli Lilly’s competitive edge is anchored by its leadership in the fast-growing obesity and diabetes drug markets, robust R&D productivity, and operational scale. The company’s incretin franchise—Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound—has rapidly gained share, with Mounjaro’s 2024 sales reaching $11.5 billion (+124% year-over-year), surpassing Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic in new prescription share in the U.S. Lilly’s total U.S. incretin market share rose to 53% by Q1 2025, up 5 percentage points in a single quarter.

Lilly’s pipeline productivity is a key differentiator. The company has 55 new medicine candidates in clinical development or regulatory review, and has demonstrated an ability to bring first-in-class or best-in-class drugs to market, as seen with recent launches in obesity, Alzheimer’s (Kisunla), and oncology (Jaypirca). R&D investment was $11.0 billion in 2024, outpacing most peers.

Operationally, Lilly is investing over $50 billion in manufacturing expansion, aiming to address global supply constraints—a critical advantage as demand for obesity drugs outstrips supply at rivals like Novo Nordisk.

Risks include high product concentration (75% of 2024 sales from six drugs) and looming patent expirations (e.g., Trulicity in 2026). However, Lilly’s focused therapeutic strategy, strong execution, and culture of innovation position it ahead of peers such as Novo Nordisk, Merck, and Pfizer in key growth markets.